Interesting explanation of a subject I had no knowledge of! I'm familiar with browser accessibility trees, but I've never thought about how operating systems do it themselves.
From the outside view, I still wouldn't make any bets with 100% certainty about the future of anything to do with computers.
If you grant that there is some chance that the trends of programming models' capabilities will continue for another few years, then there is some chance that software and its bottlenecks will be completely transformed. A rapidly overhauled accessibility tree for linux? A good-enough computer use model that doesn't require accessibility trees at all? A world of bespoke, personalized operating systems? All of these things (and many more) seem like outcomes with non-zero probabilities.
I've always interpreted "Year of the Linux Desktop" as a personal journey, like Hot Girl Summer. It's not about the year that there's a watershed and suddenly everyone is rolling custom distros, it's about an individual's journey with discovering and trying Linux. Every year can be the year of the Linux desktop if you believe!
The thing is: it already is the year of the Linux Desktop for me. I don't care about 'OS market share' or how many people use something; I have no control over them.
I also don't care about "OS-maxxing", either--quibbling over 'Wayland', or which OS has the best window manager, etc.
What I do care about? Freedom and control. Linux gives me that.
So my desktop? It's Linux. The Year of Linux on the Desktop arrived for me years ago. And it can be that year for anyone, anytime. Today.
Agree with OP. Not because of the accessibility API argument but because of the "small things" like Microsoft office, drivers, the sound not working out of speakers but working with headphones. These small problems have gone unfixed for years, or have become worse, and is the main reason why a non tech person won't transition to Linux.
The object-level discussion is interesting, but I disagree with the premise to such an extent it feels like a moot point. It feels like the article doesn't play out the line to its logical conclusion.
Why would agents want GUIs made for humans? It's already the case that, like everyone who's good at computers, agents want a terminal and good APIs, not some ad-ridden crap.
If anything, AI is a reason why it will never be the year of the linux desktop but also it doesn't matter anymore, because if the higher-order bit of productivity is defined by AI, then my tmux+vim is as good as your Visual Studio.
AI does not need a “desktop” at all for itself. So, what this article is talking about is AI driven user assistance on the desktop. And, for that, the limiting factor is what desktop the user wants to use.
> If you use a Mac and open the Accessibility Inspector tool that’s built into the system (you really should try it), you can see a second version of the computer, hiding inside the first one. The first version is the one you look at: windows, shadows, rounded rectangles, a little bouncing icon in the Dock from Slack announcing that you are falling behind.
Now use that Accessibility Inspector tool inside Slack (an Electron App)
I personally don't find a need for "agents" to use my Desktop. If the agents need to access data, they seem to manage perfectly fine with other APIs. I'm not going to switch to macOS just so that agents can click buttons on a UI for me.
>There are many reasons for this. Drivers. Games. Adobe. Microsoft Office. Battery life. The thing where you close the lid of a laptop and open it again later to find that it passed into the good night.
The last one is a huge problem for Windows as well. Its due to Microsoft discontinuing support for S3 sleep mode, which in turn, caused motherboard manufacturers to discontinue S3 support in the BIOS. Which means its no longer available even if you install Linux on the laptop since it requires firmware support to work. You can still find laptops that support S3 sleep if you really look hard enough. Or buy a Mac.
I would like to see a non-big-corp-controlled (e.g. Open source) OS that is focused on single-user systems. (Personal /"Desktop" computers) ABI compatibilty, no sudo or permissions; "just works". Schedule software, provide a GUI, threads, memory allocation etc. But get out of the way; no complicated user system; no delicate balance of text config files scattered throughout a file system.
Currently, OSS (etc) OSes are synonymous with Linux; I don't think I will ever see eye to eye with the Linux design philosophy; too many compromises which prioritize servers, multi-user IT systems; embraces scattered state across the FS etc.
"On Linux under Wayland" is a big part of the problem. On X11 a significant part of missing "GUI-exposed-as-api" is present.
If we concede (and I think otherwise) that we need a FOSS operating system and desktop experience to be fully on par with competitors and offer agentic-first options, I think that an open-minded developer (or one that can afford to run a fairly good LLM on local machine), presented with the problem, can see evidently that said roadblock doesn't exist: X11 can stop being a maze, or thousands of Wayland apps can be forked to make them expose an API, the FUSE filesystem kind of API.
I don't care much about agents though, I sure see as potentially useful some desktop assistant, and that is that.
Codex's computer use came from OpenAI's acquisition of the Apple Shortcuts team, whose institutional knowledge allowed them to exploit all sorts of undocumented macOS APIs, not some virtuous accessibility* stack. With 99% of work happening on the web anyway, it IS fair to say that it's not the year of the Linux desktop, or any desktop, because the desktop doesn't need to exist at all.
*macos26 introduced a multitude of accessibility regressions that have real-world impact on humans with disabilities, let alone AI
It doesn't mind what Chromebooks have under the hood. They don't make the Year of the Linux Desktop closer rather the another Decade of Chrome browser.
There might be a so-called "Year of the Linux Desktop", but it'd require Microsoft either doing something so disastrous that people cannot use Windows, or pivoting away from NT.
I agree as well, but I think all the reasons the author gives are wrong and outdated. Recently I got a work laptop and it came with Ubuntu, all the drivers work, the lid works fine, I can use office on it. And the battery I don't know how long it lasts because I've never run out but the estimate tells me it's 19 hours. I don't play games on it because it's for work, but I have a Steam Deck, which is also Linux.
I still think this won't be the year of Linux on the desktop because a lot of people get by only using a phone these days, and the rest are used to Windows, mostly works fine for them and don't have much incentive to change as long as MS doesn't decide to set Windows on fire.
I don't see why AI agents need to use the GUI very much? If anything, all the major advances with AI agents have been in CLI domains that Linux is perfectly well adapted to. Besides, surely AI agents could just contribute code allowing them to use Linux, no?
Eh, the point is interesting, but I'm not sure it's not solvable. Beyond that, I'm quite hopeful at linux breaking out in a big way in the next couple of years via chromebooks. My theory is that we'll start seeing a hockey stick graph of ai-found/exploited windows zero days, and in response we'll see a dramatic acceleration adoption of chromebooks. Voila, YotLD.
Interesting explanation of a subject I had no knowledge of! I'm familiar with browser accessibility trees, but I've never thought about how operating systems do it themselves.
From the outside view, I still wouldn't make any bets with 100% certainty about the future of anything to do with computers.
If you grant that there is some chance that the trends of programming models' capabilities will continue for another few years, then there is some chance that software and its bottlenecks will be completely transformed. A rapidly overhauled accessibility tree for linux? A good-enough computer use model that doesn't require accessibility trees at all? A world of bespoke, personalized operating systems? All of these things (and many more) seem like outcomes with non-zero probabilities.
I've always interpreted "Year of the Linux Desktop" as a personal journey, like Hot Girl Summer. It's not about the year that there's a watershed and suddenly everyone is rolling custom distros, it's about an individual's journey with discovering and trying Linux. Every year can be the year of the Linux desktop if you believe!
The year of the linux Desktop was the friends we made along the way... fixing our Linux desktop.
The thing is: it already is the year of the Linux Desktop for me. I don't care about 'OS market share' or how many people use something; I have no control over them.
I also don't care about "OS-maxxing", either--quibbling over 'Wayland', or which OS has the best window manager, etc.
What I do care about? Freedom and control. Linux gives me that.
So my desktop? It's Linux. The Year of Linux on the Desktop arrived for me years ago. And it can be that year for anyone, anytime. Today.
Agree with OP. Not because of the accessibility API argument but because of the "small things" like Microsoft office, drivers, the sound not working out of speakers but working with headphones. These small problems have gone unfixed for years, or have become worse, and is the main reason why a non tech person won't transition to Linux.
The object-level discussion is interesting, but I disagree with the premise to such an extent it feels like a moot point. It feels like the article doesn't play out the line to its logical conclusion.
Why would agents want GUIs made for humans? It's already the case that, like everyone who's good at computers, agents want a terminal and good APIs, not some ad-ridden crap.
If anything, AI is a reason why it will never be the year of the linux desktop but also it doesn't matter anymore, because if the higher-order bit of productivity is defined by AI, then my tmux+vim is as good as your Visual Studio.
AI does not need a “desktop” at all for itself. So, what this article is talking about is AI driven user assistance on the desktop. And, for that, the limiting factor is what desktop the user wants to use.
> If you use a Mac and open the Accessibility Inspector tool that’s built into the system (you really should try it), you can see a second version of the computer, hiding inside the first one. The first version is the one you look at: windows, shadows, rounded rectangles, a little bouncing icon in the Dock from Slack announcing that you are falling behind.
Now use that Accessibility Inspector tool inside Slack (an Electron App)
I personally don't find a need for "agents" to use my Desktop. If the agents need to access data, they seem to manage perfectly fine with other APIs. I'm not going to switch to macOS just so that agents can click buttons on a UI for me.
I'll never read an article with a title like that.
>There are many reasons for this. Drivers. Games. Adobe. Microsoft Office. Battery life. The thing where you close the lid of a laptop and open it again later to find that it passed into the good night.
The last one is a huge problem for Windows as well. Its due to Microsoft discontinuing support for S3 sleep mode, which in turn, caused motherboard manufacturers to discontinue S3 support in the BIOS. Which means its no longer available even if you install Linux on the laptop since it requires firmware support to work. You can still find laptops that support S3 sleep if you really look hard enough. Or buy a Mac.
I would like to see a non-big-corp-controlled (e.g. Open source) OS that is focused on single-user systems. (Personal /"Desktop" computers) ABI compatibilty, no sudo or permissions; "just works". Schedule software, provide a GUI, threads, memory allocation etc. But get out of the way; no complicated user system; no delicate balance of text config files scattered throughout a file system.
Currently, OSS (etc) OSes are synonymous with Linux; I don't think I will ever see eye to eye with the Linux design philosophy; too many compromises which prioritize servers, multi-user IT systems; embraces scattered state across the FS etc.
"On Linux under Wayland" is a big part of the problem. On X11 a significant part of missing "GUI-exposed-as-api" is present. If we concede (and I think otherwise) that we need a FOSS operating system and desktop experience to be fully on par with competitors and offer agentic-first options, I think that an open-minded developer (or one that can afford to run a fairly good LLM on local machine), presented with the problem, can see evidently that said roadblock doesn't exist: X11 can stop being a maze, or thousands of Wayland apps can be forked to make them expose an API, the FUSE filesystem kind of API.
I don't care much about agents though, I sure see as potentially useful some desktop assistant, and that is that.
Codex's computer use came from OpenAI's acquisition of the Apple Shortcuts team, whose institutional knowledge allowed them to exploit all sorts of undocumented macOS APIs, not some virtuous accessibility* stack. With 99% of work happening on the web anyway, it IS fair to say that it's not the year of the Linux desktop, or any desktop, because the desktop doesn't need to exist at all.
*macos26 introduced a multitude of accessibility regressions that have real-world impact on humans with disabilities, let alone AI
> because the desktop doesn't need to exist at all.
Which is a really strong argument for most people just buying chromebooks, which run linux.
It doesn't mind what Chromebooks have under the hood. They don't make the Year of the Linux Desktop closer rather the another Decade of Chrome browser.
Or just use your phone, remoted into any machine anywhere
macos26 is just one big UI regression. Ugh.. so much wasted screenspace.
There might be a so-called "Year of the Linux Desktop", but it'd require Microsoft either doing something so disastrous that people cannot use Windows, or pivoting away from NT.
"The Year of the Linux Desktop" isn't a time period, it's the friends we made along the way.
I wish somebody would make a Polymarket bet out of this. I'm 100% with the author on this one
I agree as well, but I think all the reasons the author gives are wrong and outdated. Recently I got a work laptop and it came with Ubuntu, all the drivers work, the lid works fine, I can use office on it. And the battery I don't know how long it lasts because I've never run out but the estimate tells me it's 19 hours. I don't play games on it because it's for work, but I have a Steam Deck, which is also Linux.
I still think this won't be the year of Linux on the desktop because a lot of people get by only using a phone these days, and the rest are used to Windows, mostly works fine for them and don't have much incentive to change as long as MS doesn't decide to set Windows on fire.
I’d take the other side of that bet if i didn’t think gambling was a cancer
Good thing health insurance is so cheap where I live. I really don't mind risking a little cancer for a good bet
I'll bet you gambling isn't a cancer
Wrong and I’ve been saying this for almost a decade now the Year of Linux on the Desktop is not a global event. It’s a personal event.
It is always the year of the linux desktop.
I like this take too. It’s never ending as more and more install Linux.
[delayed]
Lower lift to add accessibility tree as a new feature to Linux desktop environments, vs de-enshittifying MS and MacOS desktops?
I don't see why AI agents need to use the GUI very much? If anything, all the major advances with AI agents have been in CLI domains that Linux is perfectly well adapted to. Besides, surely AI agents could just contribute code allowing them to use Linux, no?
Eh, the point is interesting, but I'm not sure it's not solvable. Beyond that, I'm quite hopeful at linux breaking out in a big way in the next couple of years via chromebooks. My theory is that we'll start seeing a hockey stick graph of ai-found/exploited windows zero days, and in response we'll see a dramatic acceleration adoption of chromebooks. Voila, YotLD.
It's been the year of the Linux desktop for a while. Someone has been sleeping under a rock.