All: HN has had many threads with generic arguments about how prediction markets are/aren't useless, casinos, social ills, and so on. It would be good to avoid that in this case, because OP is full of specific information and arguments. It deserves a less generic discussion.
It's fine, of course, to be for/against/etc. and have whatever view you have. Just please engage with the specific article. It will make for a less repetitive and (therefore) more interesting thread.
It sounds like they should be called "indicator markets" rather than "prediction markets", as the data shows they largely just summarize the current knowledge, with little predictive ability.
All: HN has had many threads with generic arguments about how prediction markets are/aren't useless, casinos, social ills, and so on. It would be good to avoid that in this case, because OP is full of specific information and arguments. It deserves a less generic discussion.
It's fine, of course, to be for/against/etc. and have whatever view you have. Just please engage with the specific article. It will make for a less repetitive and (therefore) more interesting thread.
It sounds like they should be called "indicator markets" rather than "prediction markets", as the data shows they largely just summarize the current knowledge, with little predictive ability.