I do worry that autonomous vehicles will result in rules that further hinder walking and cycling because it makes it harder for AV’s to drive unimpeded
This post makes the assumption that people choose not to drive because it’s annoying or that they can’t multitask (the latter, unfortunately, seems not to be a blocker in the Bay Area).
I don’t see how this would increase demand significantly. Fleets may grow, but I doubt more people will be going on trips because now they don’t need to drive. I can get uber to pay my trip to the office, that doesn’t mean I want to go to the office.
When the highway I can see out my balcony is gridlocked everything is quiet. When there’s high speed it’s noisy.
When the roads are gridlocked I can bicycle by quite easily. When they’re going by at 45 mph that’s a lot more risky.
When the cars in the line are autonomous they won’t turn into me randomly because they lost their temper. Honestly, you’re making this outcome seem like paradise. Gridlock is a dream.
How are you getting around personally? Especially if demand shifts further to cars—now with fewer downsides—and further hinders availability and development of public transit, much like the post-WWII original car ownership boom did (and not just in the US!).
So making cars public, letting people just summon one at will to bring them where they want to go, cars that rides in coordinated, self-scheduling fleets, cars that pick up other people going the same way etc. etc. will lead to MORE cars on the road ?
I don't personally think the shared-fleet model is going to be the dominant one. I think private ownership will. Which means you still have to deal with parking and such. But it no longer has to be at your office. (Why private ownership? Because if you need something every day, and you can already afford a car, you're gonna want to still have your own personal one and never have to think about not being able to find a ride due to a demand spike, or rates going up, etc.)
Today if you drive you have to actively sit in traffic.
Replace that with a commute in an isolated near-soundproof private office with a comfy chair, fancy sound system.
You're gonna see people who can afford it choose to take the luxury ride over standing packed in a bus or train.
You're gonna see people who lived 25 minutes from their office because they didn't want to lose more than an hour total a day driving start be willing to put up with a longer commute to get more space for the same money, since the commute is now idle alone time, to work or relax as desired.
You take away the biggest negative about something that is seen as a luxury good compared to the alternatives in most of the US. You're gonna get more usage.
It will probably lead to more cars traveling at any time, but potentially far fewer cars parked.
However: turn most of the street parking into bus and/or bike lanes, the parking garages into apartments, seems like an absolute win. (Except for Chicago, which is presumably going to have more problems with its privatized street parking.)
Look at commute length. When families had a maximum of one car, you simply couldn't live very far from work. As soon as you got two cars per family, commute times and traffic exploded.
If you can simply sleep during the trip, how much further will people be willing to commute? I suspect quite a bit.
I do worry that autonomous vehicles will result in rules that further hinder walking and cycling because it makes it harder for AV’s to drive unimpeded
This post makes the assumption that people choose not to drive because it’s annoying or that they can’t multitask (the latter, unfortunately, seems not to be a blocker in the Bay Area).
I don’t see how this would increase demand significantly. Fleets may grow, but I doubt more people will be going on trips because now they don’t need to drive. I can get uber to pay my trip to the office, that doesn’t mean I want to go to the office.
Oh I don’t care about all that.
When the highway I can see out my balcony is gridlocked everything is quiet. When there’s high speed it’s noisy.
When the roads are gridlocked I can bicycle by quite easily. When they’re going by at 45 mph that’s a lot more risky.
When the cars in the line are autonomous they won’t turn into me randomly because they lost their temper. Honestly, you’re making this outcome seem like paradise. Gridlock is a dream.
How are you getting around personally? Especially if demand shifts further to cars—now with fewer downsides—and further hinders availability and development of public transit, much like the post-WWII original car ownership boom did (and not just in the US!).
I have electric bike. For me and family. Gridlock is best for that because cars not moving.
Aren't gridlocks noisy due to honks?
The ones in SF’s FiDi are, but the highway ones seem quiet. Beats me why.
So making cars public, letting people just summon one at will to bring them where they want to go, cars that rides in coordinated, self-scheduling fleets, cars that pick up other people going the same way etc. etc. will lead to MORE cars on the road ?
Nope, not buying it.
I don't personally think the shared-fleet model is going to be the dominant one. I think private ownership will. Which means you still have to deal with parking and such. But it no longer has to be at your office. (Why private ownership? Because if you need something every day, and you can already afford a car, you're gonna want to still have your own personal one and never have to think about not being able to find a ride due to a demand spike, or rates going up, etc.)
Today if you drive you have to actively sit in traffic.
Replace that with a commute in an isolated near-soundproof private office with a comfy chair, fancy sound system.
You're gonna see people who can afford it choose to take the luxury ride over standing packed in a bus or train.
You're gonna see people who lived 25 minutes from their office because they didn't want to lose more than an hour total a day driving start be willing to put up with a longer commute to get more space for the same money, since the commute is now idle alone time, to work or relax as desired.
You take away the biggest negative about something that is seen as a luxury good compared to the alternatives in most of the US. You're gonna get more usage.
It will probably lead to more cars traveling at any time, but potentially far fewer cars parked.
However: turn most of the street parking into bus and/or bike lanes, the parking garages into apartments, seems like an absolute win. (Except for Chicago, which is presumably going to have more problems with its privatized street parking.)
Then you are blind. It has already happened.
Look at commute length. When families had a maximum of one car, you simply couldn't live very far from work. As soon as you got two cars per family, commute times and traffic exploded.
If you can simply sleep during the trip, how much further will people be willing to commute? I suspect quite a bit.