0.5% increase in credit delinquency rates over 3 years feels... underwhelming.
I'm not a gambler and I personally find gambling morally questionable and intellectually embarrassing, but golly I'm tired of sports gambling being pointed in a sort of "see, freedom doesn't work!" sort of way.
1% of people will ruin their lives no matter what society does to prevent it. If you have a gambling problem (if it even appeals to you), I would as a _friend_, recommend you seek help; but as your fellow citizen? Up to you.
That problem 1%* isnt just ruining their own lives, it often spreads to everyone around them. Gambling has a lot of externalities that hit other people. Parents gambling takes away resources from children, gamblers engaging in fraud and and identity theft, workplace theft, embezzelment etc. Also strongly linked to higher rates of domestic violence and violent crime. It dispropotionally affects lower socio-economic groups.
It was banned most everywhere, then with no public debate on the subject, much less consensus, all of a sudden it was legal and in your face wherever you went. If it's going to be made legal, it needs to be justified, rather than there needing to be justification for making it illegal. I personally think it would have a high bar to overcome.
> If it's going to be made legal, it needs to be justified, rather than there needing to be justification for making it illegal.
Huh, why?
> It was banned most everywhere, then with no public debate on the subject, much less consensus, all of a sudden it was legal and in your face wherever you went.
They didn't change any laws, did they? So it was as legal earlier as it is now, isn't it? It's just that someone found the right loophole that was always there.
> They didn't change any laws, did they? So it was as legal earlier as it is now, isn't it? It's just that someone found the right loophole that was always there.
In the US, it was banned in most places until 2018. The Supreme Court invalidated the ban that had been in place until then.
The opposite change was already justified, it would obviously be ridiculous to have to constantly rejustify every law in our society.
> They didn't change any laws, did they? So it was as legal earlier as it is now, isn't it? It's just that someone found the right loophole that was always there.
I recall plenty of debate. Maryland voters voted to legalize gambling because politicians said the funds would go to education. It was a ballot initiative that won a majority vote.
But I guess all the states in the union aren't as well governed as Maryland.
We have many restrictions on what spend our money on. You can't buy illegal drugs, you can't pay someone to kill someone else. You can't buy many different substances without permission of the govt like certain explosives. Some states have limits on buying (or using) lockpicking tools (often called pick lock tools in the law) unless you have certain permissions, like being an active locksmith.
So we have limits on what you buy. Also you can't buy booze if you are underage. You can't buy a gun without a background check.
I personally don't participate in it and don't really find it interesting at all. For the longest time it was fairly normal to bet among friends, but I do know some people who seem to obsess now over sports betting to what feel like unhealthy levels.
I really don't care and I'm definitely on your side where I think people should be allowed to do what they want in this regard.
The crossing of line for me though is that this is now being advertised on TV and practically everywhere and being normalized for children and teenagers.
Call me a cynic, but I think the real goal in the long term for these companies is to get people addicted to it and to normalize it from a young age while they're more impressionable and thats where I believe the true harm is.
It takes a village. Especially if the problem is systemic and not just the individual. When you count the number of people with some addiction or the other the total represents how many people havent found anything better to do within the system. Thats like finding cells in your brain that are busy looping randomly not fully attached in some useful way to the system. Ofcourse you can zap them and isolate them or remove them but the imaginative solution is reattach them and make them useful to the system in some way. Cause the brains that do will have larger capacities and capabilities than brains that dont.
Percentage increases, and the phrase "X% more likely", are usually quite ambiguous. I wish more people would tell you whether they mean absolute or relative increases. E.g., if (numbers made up for example) 0.5% of the general population are delinquent in credit, but 1% of gamblers are delinquent, then you could report that as either a 0.5% increase (absolute) or a 100% increase (relative). Which one people choose often has a lot to do with the impression they're trying to give: are they trying to panic you, or give you actual facts?
And knowing the baseline of a relative increase can matter a lot. If something goes from a 0.001% to a 0.002% chance of happening, that relative 100% increase means very little. If it goes from a 50% chance of happening to a 100% chance, that same relative 100% increase means a lot: it's gone from a coin-flip to a certainty.
0.5% total increase seems pretty small to me too. It looks like it's pretty much increasing linearly though, so it's possible that in ten years it will be at 3% or something, which I think would be concerning. It's hard to tell whether that will continue, or whether we'll hit a natural steady state, but it seems like we're not at the steady state yet.
edit: I think it also matters whether this is a 0.5% _relative_ increase in the rate of credit delinquencies or if it's an _absolute_ increase of 0.5% in credit delinquencies. Eg, if the baseline rate was 0.5%, and this increases it to 1%, that's big
I was surprised by that too, but maybe we're too early. It's hard to put a precise point on it without hard data, but it just feels like gambling was better when you could do it in two places (Vegas, Atlantic City, maybe to a lessor extent at the horse track) and you had to actually travel there to make a big show of it. And you also felt a little bad about it.
When I turn on sports today it's just in your face gambling all the time. I think we'll come to regret this.
For the affected population, it’s around 10 percentage points—or double.
So people who sports bet are twice as likely to be delinquent as those who don’t. I’ll give you that the effect is smaller than I expected.
Here’s the thing though…it’s not like that trend is slowing down. The finalization of prediction markets and continued normalization of betting as a pro-social behavior is currently headed to the moon…so we should ask if it’s causing major side effects.
Smoking makes someone 25x more likely to develop lung cancer. Right now it looks like sports betting makes you 2x more likely to be delinquent on your car loan. At what incidence does that become anti-social enough to try to curb?
As Comedy Central put it. “Sports, brought to you by gambling”.
I don’t disagree on ad regulation but it’s enmeshed now and will be hard to control. Leagues kept their distance because it looked bad, but now seem to embrace it as it must generate a boat load of ad revenue.
Well, 'sports' itself is predatory and causes lots of young people to trash their health for the amusement of onlookers.
I say 'sports' to mean the stuff people watch on TV and in stadiums. You going for a run or kicking a ball with friends is fine. It's audience-driven sports that are bad.
As a fellow citizen we should stop letting this stuff be advertised and shoved down our throats.
You can barely even watch sports these days without interacting with betting, who is this helping?
If people want to seek out destruction, let them. But don't advertise and glamorize self-destruction by letting these people pay famous people to make their platforms look like the place to be, or have open discussion of their vice embedded in the broadcasting.
Very interesting. Would love to see comparisons with LV where sports gambling has always been legal (relative delinquency rates to other states before the ‘18 ruling, especially in the u40 group). Also change in delinquencies in LV as a control (presumably flat)
That feels like it wouldn't provide a useful comparison, because the people who were going to bet on sports when LV was the legal place to do it, would go to LV to do it. Their delinquency rates wouldn't necessarily be reflected in LV, though, since they've come from elsewhere to do it.
I’m waiting for this to affect more young men from my country of Finland.
Decades of a government monopoly on gambling was dismantled, and the market is being opened up for foreign companies buying licenses to operate.
It feels like there is a global wave of reintroducing every ”vice” that was somehow curbed with laws and restrictions. Nicotine? Cigarettes were so expensive that young people didn’t even bother, until snus, vapes and nicotine pouches (especially the pouchess) took off, and now more young people are hooked on nicotine than ever, and even younger.
Light alcohol beverages were only sold through supermarkets, and the wines and the stronger stuff through the well-equipped national monopoly. Now home delivery and breaking up the monopoly is on the table. Ever stronger stuff is getting moved to supermarkets instead of liquor stores.
Now gambling is next. It’s so bad that even the great Apple Inc. includes betting odds by DraftKings (it says so on the app) on their Sports scores app that’s rated ages 4+. You literally have to go to the app settings to turn them off.
All these rollbacks are made by economically right wing parties in the name of personal liberties. Oddly enough, as with many such reforma by the economic right, the gains are personal, but the losses are collective. Billions of euros a year go into fixing the negative effects of alcohol and nicotine. I’ve no idea about the numbers for gambling, but at least the revenues from the government monopoly funded NGOs and other public services directly.
It’s increasingly maddening seeing imperfect solutions to terrible human problems being replaced with… nothing. Nanny state laws might not work, but neither does my alcoholic neighbour… or my old high school friend, who lost so much money gambling that he refuses to find work, because the debt collectors taking a majority of his paycheck. They have more freedom now, at least.
Nicotine is actually good for you (at least no worse than caffeine). It's all the other stuff in tar that's bad for you. And that part of the smoke is bad pretty much whatever you burn.
Why don't you say what country you mean? Sorry, but just writing "in my country" and leaving everyone else to guess is an internet trope I find very annoying.
Edit: Looks like you edited your comment to say Finland. Thanks!
As for the content of the comment, I totally agree. I think the eroding standards of regulation of addictive substances (and addictive behaviors like gambling or social media apps) is a serious mistake that we will come to profoundly regret.
there is a book. addiction by design, exactly about this.
most of betting houses depend heavily on problem gamblers, I will look for some stats, but the truth is regulators don't care or have controversial ties very often
0.5% increase in credit delinquency rates over 3 years feels... underwhelming.
I'm not a gambler and I personally find gambling morally questionable and intellectually embarrassing, but golly I'm tired of sports gambling being pointed in a sort of "see, freedom doesn't work!" sort of way.
1% of people will ruin their lives no matter what society does to prevent it. If you have a gambling problem (if it even appeals to you), I would as a _friend_, recommend you seek help; but as your fellow citizen? Up to you.
That problem 1%* isnt just ruining their own lives, it often spreads to everyone around them. Gambling has a lot of externalities that hit other people. Parents gambling takes away resources from children, gamblers engaging in fraud and and identity theft, workplace theft, embezzelment etc. Also strongly linked to higher rates of domestic violence and violent crime. It dispropotionally affects lower socio-economic groups.
*It may be much higher than 1%
https://www.unsw.edu.au/news/2024/10/new-commission-calls-fo...
It was banned most everywhere, then with no public debate on the subject, much less consensus, all of a sudden it was legal and in your face wherever you went. If it's going to be made legal, it needs to be justified, rather than there needing to be justification for making it illegal. I personally think it would have a high bar to overcome.
> If it's going to be made legal, it needs to be justified, rather than there needing to be justification for making it illegal.
Huh, why?
> It was banned most everywhere, then with no public debate on the subject, much less consensus, all of a sudden it was legal and in your face wherever you went.
They didn't change any laws, did they? So it was as legal earlier as it is now, isn't it? It's just that someone found the right loophole that was always there.
> They didn't change any laws, did they? So it was as legal earlier as it is now, isn't it? It's just that someone found the right loophole that was always there.
In the US, it was banned in most places until 2018. The Supreme Court invalidated the ban that had been in place until then.
> Huh, why?
The opposite change was already justified, it would obviously be ridiculous to have to constantly rejustify every law in our society.
> They didn't change any laws, did they? So it was as legal earlier as it is now, isn't it? It's just that someone found the right loophole that was always there.
I do not know nor do I particularly care.
I recall plenty of debate. Maryland voters voted to legalize gambling because politicians said the funds would go to education. It was a ballot initiative that won a majority vote.
But I guess all the states in the union aren't as well governed as Maryland.
Here's the justification; it's my money and I'll spend it how I like
We have many restrictions on what spend our money on. You can't buy illegal drugs, you can't pay someone to kill someone else. You can't buy many different substances without permission of the govt like certain explosives. Some states have limits on buying (or using) lockpicking tools (often called pick lock tools in the law) unless you have certain permissions, like being an active locksmith.
So we have limits on what you buy. Also you can't buy booze if you are underage. You can't buy a gun without a background check.
I personally don't participate in it and don't really find it interesting at all. For the longest time it was fairly normal to bet among friends, but I do know some people who seem to obsess now over sports betting to what feel like unhealthy levels.
I really don't care and I'm definitely on your side where I think people should be allowed to do what they want in this regard.
The crossing of line for me though is that this is now being advertised on TV and practically everywhere and being normalized for children and teenagers.
Call me a cynic, but I think the real goal in the long term for these companies is to get people addicted to it and to normalize it from a young age while they're more impressionable and thats where I believe the true harm is.
It takes a village. Especially if the problem is systemic and not just the individual. When you count the number of people with some addiction or the other the total represents how many people havent found anything better to do within the system. Thats like finding cells in your brain that are busy looping randomly not fully attached in some useful way to the system. Ofcourse you can zap them and isolate them or remove them but the imaginative solution is reattach them and make them useful to the system in some way. Cause the brains that do will have larger capacities and capabilities than brains that dont.
Percentage increases, and the phrase "X% more likely", are usually quite ambiguous. I wish more people would tell you whether they mean absolute or relative increases. E.g., if (numbers made up for example) 0.5% of the general population are delinquent in credit, but 1% of gamblers are delinquent, then you could report that as either a 0.5% increase (absolute) or a 100% increase (relative). Which one people choose often has a lot to do with the impression they're trying to give: are they trying to panic you, or give you actual facts?
And knowing the baseline of a relative increase can matter a lot. If something goes from a 0.001% to a 0.002% chance of happening, that relative 100% increase means very little. If it goes from a 50% chance of happening to a 100% chance, that same relative 100% increase means a lot: it's gone from a coin-flip to a certainty.
0.5% total increase seems pretty small to me too. It looks like it's pretty much increasing linearly though, so it's possible that in ten years it will be at 3% or something, which I think would be concerning. It's hard to tell whether that will continue, or whether we'll hit a natural steady state, but it seems like we're not at the steady state yet.
edit: I think it also matters whether this is a 0.5% _relative_ increase in the rate of credit delinquencies or if it's an _absolute_ increase of 0.5% in credit delinquencies. Eg, if the baseline rate was 0.5%, and this increases it to 1%, that's big
I was surprised by that too, but maybe we're too early. It's hard to put a precise point on it without hard data, but it just feels like gambling was better when you could do it in two places (Vegas, Atlantic City, maybe to a lessor extent at the horse track) and you had to actually travel there to make a big show of it. And you also felt a little bad about it.
When I turn on sports today it's just in your face gambling all the time. I think we'll come to regret this.
I mean…keep reading.
For the affected population, it’s around 10 percentage points—or double.
So people who sports bet are twice as likely to be delinquent as those who don’t. I’ll give you that the effect is smaller than I expected.
Here’s the thing though…it’s not like that trend is slowing down. The finalization of prediction markets and continued normalization of betting as a pro-social behavior is currently headed to the moon…so we should ask if it’s causing major side effects.
Smoking makes someone 25x more likely to develop lung cancer. Right now it looks like sports betting makes you 2x more likely to be delinquent on your car loan. At what incidence does that become anti-social enough to try to curb?
Sports betting is regulated, prediction markets aren't though. That's a pretty stark difference
There's plenty of regulation around them. But sure, you can ask for even more, or different regulation.
I agree. Ban the advertising and promotion of it, like we do for cigarettes, because the industry is really predatory, but leave people the choice.
As Comedy Central put it. “Sports, brought to you by gambling”.
I don’t disagree on ad regulation but it’s enmeshed now and will be hard to control. Leagues kept their distance because it looked bad, but now seem to embrace it as it must generate a boat load of ad revenue.
Well, 'sports' itself is predatory and causes lots of young people to trash their health for the amusement of onlookers.
I say 'sports' to mean the stuff people watch on TV and in stadiums. You going for a run or kicking a ball with friends is fine. It's audience-driven sports that are bad.
A bit of betting is small fry by comparison.
As a fellow citizen we should stop letting this stuff be advertised and shoved down our throats.
You can barely even watch sports these days without interacting with betting, who is this helping?
If people want to seek out destruction, let them. But don't advertise and glamorize self-destruction by letting these people pay famous people to make their platforms look like the place to be, or have open discussion of their vice embedded in the broadcasting.
They buried the lede…
Participation in sports betting appears to make people about 2x more likely to be delinquent on their loans.
Whether you think that’s “bad enough” is another question, but the article doesn’t make it very clear what the effect size is.
I wonder if this is just selection bias
People who are bad with money are bad with money
Well, at least you'd want to be careful about correlations vs causation, yes.
Very interesting. Would love to see comparisons with LV where sports gambling has always been legal (relative delinquency rates to other states before the ‘18 ruling, especially in the u40 group). Also change in delinquencies in LV as a control (presumably flat)
That feels like it wouldn't provide a useful comparison, because the people who were going to bet on sports when LV was the legal place to do it, would go to LV to do it. Their delinquency rates wouldn't necessarily be reflected in LV, though, since they've come from elsewhere to do it.
I’m waiting for this to affect more young men from my country of Finland.
Decades of a government monopoly on gambling was dismantled, and the market is being opened up for foreign companies buying licenses to operate.
It feels like there is a global wave of reintroducing every ”vice” that was somehow curbed with laws and restrictions. Nicotine? Cigarettes were so expensive that young people didn’t even bother, until snus, vapes and nicotine pouches (especially the pouchess) took off, and now more young people are hooked on nicotine than ever, and even younger.
Light alcohol beverages were only sold through supermarkets, and the wines and the stronger stuff through the well-equipped national monopoly. Now home delivery and breaking up the monopoly is on the table. Ever stronger stuff is getting moved to supermarkets instead of liquor stores.
Now gambling is next. It’s so bad that even the great Apple Inc. includes betting odds by DraftKings (it says so on the app) on their Sports scores app that’s rated ages 4+. You literally have to go to the app settings to turn them off.
All these rollbacks are made by economically right wing parties in the name of personal liberties. Oddly enough, as with many such reforma by the economic right, the gains are personal, but the losses are collective. Billions of euros a year go into fixing the negative effects of alcohol and nicotine. I’ve no idea about the numbers for gambling, but at least the revenues from the government monopoly funded NGOs and other public services directly.
It’s increasingly maddening seeing imperfect solutions to terrible human problems being replaced with… nothing. Nanny state laws might not work, but neither does my alcoholic neighbour… or my old high school friend, who lost so much money gambling that he refuses to find work, because the debt collectors taking a majority of his paycheck. They have more freedom now, at least.
Nicotine is actually good for you (at least no worse than caffeine). It's all the other stuff in tar that's bad for you. And that part of the smoke is bad pretty much whatever you burn.
Vaping avoids most of that.
Why don't you say what country you mean? Sorry, but just writing "in my country" and leaving everyone else to guess is an internet trope I find very annoying.
Edit: Looks like you edited your comment to say Finland. Thanks!
As for the content of the comment, I totally agree. I think the eroding standards of regulation of addictive substances (and addictive behaviors like gambling or social media apps) is a serious mistake that we will come to profoundly regret.
there is a book. addiction by design, exactly about this.
most of betting houses depend heavily on problem gamblers, I will look for some stats, but the truth is regulators don't care or have controversial ties very often