I think people understand the odds are small. However, perhaps they perceive their chances of meaningfully turn around their life in other ways have even smaller odds. i.e. improbable vs actually impossible. At least the lottery doesn't care about your current circumstance and everyone has an equal (equally small) chance.
Secondly, because everyone realizes the chances are small, the real product being sold is Hope. Even the advertisements for the lotteries address this. The thing you're buying is 30 seconds of daydreaming so you can comfortably tackle the rest of the day.
I think:
1) Like you said, people are buying hope.
2) People cannot fathom this degree of improbability. So, the fact that it's at least possible overrides the near-impossibility of it.
3) There is some aspect of entertainment and social-interaction to it. It's a bit like watching sports. Who you're cheering for is irrelevant, and whoever wins doesn't change your life in any way, but still, we watch it.
I know people in the neighbourhood/street I was born, who still live there (well over 50 years in the same house) who bought the postcode lottery tickets since forever, 12x a year, never won anything; this year it fell in the adjacent area code... It must hurt.
This is technically true, but the end result is that if you abolish the lottery (unpopular) you have to raise taxes (even more unpopular) to replace lost revenue.
Sin taxes work so well at plugging funding gaps specifically because they are optional.
That and they are taxing the poor and under educated who are least likely to complain.
Making things explicit such as stamping a “45% Tax” on lottery tickets really changes people’s perception. The Trump administration almost flipped out when Amazon considered explicitly adding tariffs to people’s checkout.
I would be really curious to see the money side of this. I am not sure about Powerball, but with EuroJackpot, some of the smaller wins can cover the cost of the ticket (or even cover a holiday!).
It would be really interesting to watch the expected value play out over repeated plays!! I am imagining a running balance where you keep track of total spend versus total returns. Most of the time the balance steadily goes more negative, with occasional jumps back up when you hit a partial match, and very rare big spikes from a larger win.
Should also include a running tally for the total net profit taken in by the government (after payouts) across all expected ticket sales. That way you can watch your number going negative while the government's balloons up into billions.
Love the idea. Could also allow the viewer to pick how often they buy tickets and keep track of how much time passes. I think this dimension would help give context to the losses number.
Might hide all this behind the current automatic view with a “play it yourself” toggle.
What I love about this is how it demonstrates that the waiting is the most powerful part. That week is where a lotto user’s brain does all the work for the lotto corp. The anticipation! The excitement. What if? Oh let’s daydream! Oh the dopamine!
You don’t even have to sell them hope. Just sell them the sensation of hope.
I view buying a lottery ticket as a way to fund the things that the taxes are allocated to while also getting to fantasize until the drawing. I play maybe twice a year. There's near zero chance I'll win. That's not the point. The point is to have that fantasy, just for a moment.
Hope is a pretty good thing to have, though. And it's one of the few things many people actually _can_ have. Therefore maybe lotteries aren't so bad after all even if nobody ever wins, and posts like this are actually bad.
Many people come down off that kind of hope when their numbers don’t come up. I’ve seen it. I have friends who felt it. You might perceive it as a sort of loan to get you through the week. But you owe it back plus the $2 interest.
I think it would be interesting to have a version where the chosen numbers were the same every time. We all know the odds won't change but there are countless people who play the lottery this way. They have "their" numbers and they never deviate for fear that if they do, that's when "their" numbers would pop up and they'd miss out on the win.
You're romanticizing, sadly. Every time I see someone scratching off numbers, I see a twisted industry exploiting human hopefulness and naivety. Dreaming costs nothing.
Neat. I like that multiple clients get the same websocket data, as opposed to each just running their own simulation. I will be watching https://lotteryeverysecond.lffl.me/wins with interest. ;)
What would be cool is being able to enter a ticket price, and keep a running count of financials to show how underwater you are on a net basis.
Could also change the cadence for tallying purposes (so 1 second = 1 week/fortnight/month) to keep track of how many weeks, months or years one has been doing this for. But that might get depressing!
Why not buy lottery tickets? The only thing smaller than the ridiculously small chance of winning is absolute zero, from never playing. Bad odds are still odds :)
I think for most people, they just think _someone_ will win eventually and you can't win if you don't play, so why not part with some (hopefully) disposable income that could turn their entire life around.
The thing that annoys me most about the lottery is the tradeoff between risk and reward is so dumb as to become actually dangerous. The linked site says the Eurojackpot has a 1 in 139,838,160 chance of a jackpot and a payout of €10,000,000, where for most people a payout of €50k-€250k would be completely life changing and I expect there exist risky bets/gambles/investments which would give you that payout for much better odds.
Not to mention that once your winnings goes over a certain threshold the chance that you end up dead from bad choices or straight up murdered seems to skyrocket.
I think people understand the odds are small. However, perhaps they perceive their chances of meaningfully turn around their life in other ways have even smaller odds. i.e. improbable vs actually impossible. At least the lottery doesn't care about your current circumstance and everyone has an equal (equally small) chance.
Secondly, because everyone realizes the chances are small, the real product being sold is Hope. Even the advertisements for the lotteries address this. The thing you're buying is 30 seconds of daydreaming so you can comfortably tackle the rest of the day.
I think: 1) Like you said, people are buying hope. 2) People cannot fathom this degree of improbability. So, the fact that it's at least possible overrides the near-impossibility of it. 3) There is some aspect of entertainment and social-interaction to it. It's a bit like watching sports. Who you're cheering for is irrelevant, and whoever wins doesn't change your life in any way, but still, we watch it.
I know people in the neighbourhood/street I was born, who still live there (well over 50 years in the same house) who bought the postcode lottery tickets since forever, 12x a year, never won anything; this year it fell in the adjacent area code... It must hurt.
Another aspect is that in many states, a large portion of the lottery goes directly into public good programs like education: https://www.powerball.net/distribution-of-revenue
All the players know that the odds are horrible, but in the end someone does win.
Money is fungible, every penny going from the lottery to X is a penny not taken from the general fund.
Thus specific funds for X is only meaningful as a minimum funding amount.
And they would also have to believe that their education system in its current form would have been even worse without the lottery.
This is technically true, but the end result is that if you abolish the lottery (unpopular) you have to raise taxes (even more unpopular) to replace lost revenue.
Sin taxes work so well at plugging funding gaps specifically because they are optional.
That and they are taxing the poor and under educated who are least likely to complain.
Making things explicit such as stamping a “45% Tax” on lottery tickets really changes people’s perception. The Trump administration almost flipped out when Amazon considered explicitly adding tariffs to people’s checkout.
I would be really curious to see the money side of this. I am not sure about Powerball, but with EuroJackpot, some of the smaller wins can cover the cost of the ticket (or even cover a holiday!).
It would be really interesting to watch the expected value play out over repeated plays!! I am imagining a running balance where you keep track of total spend versus total returns. Most of the time the balance steadily goes more negative, with occasional jumps back up when you hit a partial match, and very rare big spikes from a larger win.
Very cool project!
Should also include a running tally for the total net profit taken in by the government (after payouts) across all expected ticket sales. That way you can watch your number going negative while the government's balloons up into billions.
Love the idea. Could also allow the viewer to pick how often they buy tickets and keep track of how much time passes. I think this dimension would help give context to the losses number.
Might hide all this behind the current automatic view with a “play it yourself” toggle.
What I love about this is how it demonstrates that the waiting is the most powerful part. That week is where a lotto user’s brain does all the work for the lotto corp. The anticipation! The excitement. What if? Oh let’s daydream! Oh the dopamine!
You don’t even have to sell them hope. Just sell them the sensation of hope.
I view buying a lottery ticket as a way to fund the things that the taxes are allocated to while also getting to fantasize until the drawing. I play maybe twice a year. There's near zero chance I'll win. That's not the point. The point is to have that fantasy, just for a moment.
Hope is a pretty good thing to have, though. And it's one of the few things many people actually _can_ have. Therefore maybe lotteries aren't so bad after all even if nobody ever wins, and posts like this are actually bad.
Many people come down off that kind of hope when their numbers don’t come up. I’ve seen it. I have friends who felt it. You might perceive it as a sort of loan to get you through the week. But you owe it back plus the $2 interest.
I think it would be interesting to have a version where the chosen numbers were the same every time. We all know the odds won't change but there are countless people who play the lottery this way. They have "their" numbers and they never deviate for fear that if they do, that's when "their" numbers would pop up and they'd miss out on the win.
What people often overlook about lottos is that for a few dollars, you’re buying the chance to dream about a better life.
And that dream lasts right up until you check the numbers.
That’s the part rational investors tend to miss … the power of dreaming.
And I’ll admit it - I play the lottery too, even though I already live a pretty comfortable life.
You're romanticizing, sadly. Every time I see someone scratching off numbers, I see a twisted industry exploiting human hopefulness and naivety. Dreaming costs nothing.
A few years ago I wrote a script to compare my numbers against all previous drawings. Still didn’t “win”!
Neat. I like that multiple clients get the same websocket data, as opposed to each just running their own simulation. I will be watching https://lotteryeverysecond.lffl.me/wins with interest. ;)
What would be cool is being able to enter a ticket price, and keep a running count of financials to show how underwater you are on a net basis.
Could also change the cadence for tallying purposes (so 1 second = 1 week/fortnight/month) to keep track of how many weeks, months or years one has been doing this for. But that might get depressing!
The amount of time I spent watching this page is a nice reminder of why I have a rule to never buy lottery tickets.
See also: Simulation Clicker.
I know how my brain works these days.
Why not buy lottery tickets? The only thing smaller than the ridiculously small chance of winning is absolute zero, from never playing. Bad odds are still odds :)
If $DEITY wants me to win, the winning lottery ticket will be dropped by someone and it’ll blow into my car and get lodged onto the dashboard.
So you're telling me there's a chance
The Company has never existed, and never will.
https://archive.org/download/HeliganSecretsOfTheLostGardens/...
I think for most people, they just think _someone_ will win eventually and you can't win if you don't play, so why not part with some (hopefully) disposable income that could turn their entire life around.
> Approximately 4.6 years of continuous play, every second, to see a single jackpot win.
This seems pretty reasonable, actually! Somehow it makes the 320M seem manageable.
The thing that annoys me most about the lottery is the tradeoff between risk and reward is so dumb as to become actually dangerous. The linked site says the Eurojackpot has a 1 in 139,838,160 chance of a jackpot and a payout of €10,000,000, where for most people a payout of €50k-€250k would be completely life changing and I expect there exist risky bets/gambles/investments which would give you that payout for much better odds.
Not to mention that once your winnings goes over a certain threshold the chance that you end up dead from bad choices or straight up murdered seems to skyrocket.
wow, elegantly said, thanks!
I just saw a 57.1% percent match go by.. That sure would have convinced me to buy more tickets.. :-)
That would only be like $7 in powerball ;)
The odds of winning are so low that I tell people the odds that they will just give me the money even though I bought no ticket can’t be much lower.
Good idea to show the odds. I wouldn’t be able to remember the name to send to someone
Maybe try shouldIplaythelottery.com
Interesting site. Logic is rather easy, setting you the WEB site to present the results to me is rather hard.