I don't see the economic pressure pushing for that.
To first order, the bigger a vehicle is the less you worry about the cost of the pilot/driver. The biggest untold story in aviation is the battle between the pilots of small "regional aircraft" vs "mainline aircraft", the former of which generate less value for the same amount of work and necessarily get paid less. Unions have enforced "scope clauses" that have prevented a new generation of slightly larger regional aircraft which could lower costs at small airports and have no trouble getting filled as those lower costs get passed on to consumers. As it is small airports are dying out, harming smaller cities and towns and giving the "left behind" all the more reason to lash out.
Similarly there is a lot of a talk of crisis in truck driving, both at the local and long-haul levels. My brother-in-law has a CDL and he is always talking about how inexperienced drivers seem to wedge their trucks on a bridge in Binghamton once a month, stall out on the highway and get into accidents, etc.
This is true for so many things - even driverless taxis, drone deliveries, even office jobs / AI.
The narrative is that human labor is expensive super expensive, there are "skills shortages", etc etc... but in actuality, hiring a few people rounds down to 0 in the context of an airliner or an office building in Manhattan, and you get a lot of political sway for employing folks and paying payroll taxes, and the "doorman fallacy" is very real. The "robots taking our jobs" narrative seems hugely exaggerated to me.
You don't see the economic pressure for doing that, but single pilot operations is a target for Airbus, so "one pilot instead of two" is already compelling.
In the language of the moment AI means LLMS. The answer there is “never”
If you say autopilot that implies a wildly different technology. I think the first successful autopilot landing with passengers onboard happened last week.
Taking off is much easier than landing and if passengers aren’t involved…
I guess the question is not about technology (might be ready now) and is instead about regulation (when will the FAA allow fully autonomous flights).
I’m guessing the current generation of regulators will need to die before that happens so 25+ years.
I don't see the economic pressure pushing for that.
To first order, the bigger a vehicle is the less you worry about the cost of the pilot/driver. The biggest untold story in aviation is the battle between the pilots of small "regional aircraft" vs "mainline aircraft", the former of which generate less value for the same amount of work and necessarily get paid less. Unions have enforced "scope clauses" that have prevented a new generation of slightly larger regional aircraft which could lower costs at small airports and have no trouble getting filled as those lower costs get passed on to consumers. As it is small airports are dying out, harming smaller cities and towns and giving the "left behind" all the more reason to lash out.
Similarly there is a lot of a talk of crisis in truck driving, both at the local and long-haul levels. My brother-in-law has a CDL and he is always talking about how inexperienced drivers seem to wedge their trucks on a bridge in Binghamton once a month, stall out on the highway and get into accidents, etc.
This is true for so many things - even driverless taxis, drone deliveries, even office jobs / AI.
The narrative is that human labor is expensive super expensive, there are "skills shortages", etc etc... but in actuality, hiring a few people rounds down to 0 in the context of an airliner or an office building in Manhattan, and you get a lot of political sway for employing folks and paying payroll taxes, and the "doorman fallacy" is very real. The "robots taking our jobs" narrative seems hugely exaggerated to me.
You don't see the economic pressure for doing that, but single pilot operations is a target for Airbus, so "one pilot instead of two" is already compelling.
In the language of the moment AI means LLMS. The answer there is “never”
If you say autopilot that implies a wildly different technology. I think the first successful autopilot landing with passengers onboard happened last week.
Taking off is much easier than landing and if passengers aren’t involved…
I guess the question is not about technology (might be ready now) and is instead about regulation (when will the FAA allow fully autonomous flights). I’m guessing the current generation of regulators will need to die before that happens so 25+ years.
> I think the first successful autopilot landing with passengers onboard happened last week.
What definition are you using for "autopilot landing" here? Autopilots have been able to land planes for quite some time.
Conversely, autopilots still can't handle takeoff (though the more modern airliners have significantly more takeoff automation than before).