Much of our effort is devoted to debating and educating about whether specific beliefs are “true”
or “false,” or whether humanity is becoming “more peaceful.” The implicit hope is that rational
persuasion will continue to expand the cooperative majority over time - an effort that remains
both valuable and necessary. But these efforts operate on averages. In complex systems
dominated by extreme outcomes, averages are irrelevant.
The only metric that matters is tail risk.
From a systems-engineering perspective, tribalism - whether ethnic, religious, nationalistic, or
ideological - was a necessary and unavoidable train stop in the evolutionary journey that
enabled early human coordination. But in the modern technological era, it introduces a non-zero
probability of irreversible systemic collapse.
The “Great Filter” of the Fermi Paradox is not a particular war or catastrophe. It is the
mathematical consequence of operating indefinitely in a system where the probability of total
failure is greater than zero. If Russian roulette is played long enough, entropy eventually wins.
Abstract
Much of our effort is devoted to debating and educating about whether specific beliefs are “true” or “false,” or whether humanity is becoming “more peaceful.” The implicit hope is that rational persuasion will continue to expand the cooperative majority over time - an effort that remains both valuable and necessary. But these efforts operate on averages. In complex systems dominated by extreme outcomes, averages are irrelevant.
The only metric that matters is tail risk.
From a systems-engineering perspective, tribalism - whether ethnic, religious, nationalistic, or ideological - was a necessary and unavoidable train stop in the evolutionary journey that enabled early human coordination. But in the modern technological era, it introduces a non-zero probability of irreversible systemic collapse.
The “Great Filter” of the Fermi Paradox is not a particular war or catastrophe. It is the mathematical consequence of operating indefinitely in a system where the probability of total failure is greater than zero. If Russian roulette is played long enough, entropy eventually wins.