It used to be that technology was driven by user demand. Users wanted better graphics and games and productivity software and were excited about progress being made to those ends.
Today, advances in technology are made in the interest of the companies that provide the tech. I want more tracking in my OS said no user ever. I want my OS to force me to use cloud saves said no user ever. I want my computer to take screenshots of my desktop every second and send them to Microsoft said no user ever. I want AI agents poking about my system said no user ever. My PC works fine but I would like to be forced into upgrading said no user ever.
It used to be the case that users were hungry for new upgrades, now they dread them.
Maybe personal computing is entering a slow decline.
Rising RAM prices over the next couple of years will make new computers and phones harder to justify, so people will keep devices longer. At the same time, Microsoft and Apple (et alia) continue shipping more demanding software packed with features no users asked for. Software growth has long driven hardware upgrades, but if upgrades no longer feel worthwhile, the feedback loop breaks. The question is whether personal computing keeps its central role, or quietly becomes legacy infrastructure people replace only when forced? In that case: What is the next era?
It seems to me that what your saying isn't the personal computing is entering a slow decline but the PC market is. If people continue to use PCs they already own then personal computing is alive and well.
I think we're seeing that companies can't get away with the same tricks to increase profits indefinitely. Consumers are becoming less susceptible to marketing and hype that it isn't backed up by actual substance. (And substance doesn't just mean a good idea, execution matters, if you release some sort of new device with really buggy software it's not going to get traction.)
I see the difference as this.
It used to be that technology was driven by user demand. Users wanted better graphics and games and productivity software and were excited about progress being made to those ends.
Today, advances in technology are made in the interest of the companies that provide the tech. I want more tracking in my OS said no user ever. I want my OS to force me to use cloud saves said no user ever. I want my computer to take screenshots of my desktop every second and send them to Microsoft said no user ever. I want AI agents poking about my system said no user ever. My PC works fine but I would like to be forced into upgrading said no user ever.
It used to be the case that users were hungry for new upgrades, now they dread them.
Just my take.
Maybe personal computing is entering a slow decline.
Rising RAM prices over the next couple of years will make new computers and phones harder to justify, so people will keep devices longer. At the same time, Microsoft and Apple (et alia) continue shipping more demanding software packed with features no users asked for. Software growth has long driven hardware upgrades, but if upgrades no longer feel worthwhile, the feedback loop breaks. The question is whether personal computing keeps its central role, or quietly becomes legacy infrastructure people replace only when forced? In that case: What is the next era?
It seems to me that what your saying isn't the personal computing is entering a slow decline but the PC market is. If people continue to use PCs they already own then personal computing is alive and well.
I think we're seeing that companies can't get away with the same tricks to increase profits indefinitely. Consumers are becoming less susceptible to marketing and hype that it isn't backed up by actual substance. (And substance doesn't just mean a good idea, execution matters, if you release some sort of new device with really buggy software it's not going to get traction.)